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 Spring Carnival Tips

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neil21
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PostSubject: Spring Carnival Tips   Fri Oct 28, 2011 8:14 am

Its derby day tomorrow, biggest day of racing on the calendar
Ill go through my tips here, im sure Hank will put something up a bit later

RACE 1 - 1600m

Galah is the class horse of the field winning strongly over 1400 last start. Basically he runs up to potential he wins.

1st - 1 Galah ($1.65)
2nd - 4 Meethaq
3rd - 2 Highly Recommended

RACE 2 - 2500m

Last chance to get into the cup. Strong race this year with a few live chances. Caulfield Cup place getters Green Moon and Tullamore are right in this race. Other chances include Midnight Martini, Older Than Time and Niwot. But I like the import Moyenne Corniche, ran in the Bart Cummongs over 2500 and flew home after being held up. I think he has the talent to overcome these and get into the cup.

1st - 4 Moyenne Corniche ($9)
2nd - 3 Green Moone
3rd - 1 Tullamore

RACE 3 - 2000m

Atlantic Jewel runs to the 2000 it wins. Simple as that.
Dowager Queen and Bliss Street only dangers I believe

1st - 1 Atlantic Jewel ($1.30)
2nd - 3 Bliss Street
3rd - 4 Dowager Queen

RACE 4 - G1 1200m

Another pretty clear cut race. Sepoy is 2nd best sprinter in Australia at the moment and against his own age at equal weights really should smash this field.
Intrest runner is Bear Hero who has come from Hong Kong

1st - 1 Sepoy ($1.28)
2nd - 4 Foxwedge
3rd - 7 Adamantium

RACE 5 - G1 2000m

The McKinnon stakes is always a hot race and this years version is no exception. 14 horse field and all 14 horses have winning claims.
My tip is Glass Harmonium, ignore last weeks effort in the Cox Plate when he played up in barriers and didnt jump well at all and had to settle at back of field. His previous effort was supurb in the Turnball with December Draw having to pull out everything to beat him. If December Draw ran in this it would win.

1st - 8 Glass Harmonium ($8)
2nd - 12 Rekindled Intrest
3rd - 3 Midas Touch

RACE 6 - DERBY 2500m

The 2500 metres for the 3 year olds are always a test, at least half the field wont run out the distance. If the favourite Manawanui runs out the 2500 it wins, I can see a reason why it wont run that far after its effort over 2040 last week.
If he doesnt run the distance the raced is very open with the leading chances being Induna, Perfect Punch and Niagara. But then again there is no certainty that they will run the 2500.

1st - 1 Manawanui ($2.50)
2nd - 6 Perfect Punch
3rd - 7 Induna

RACE 7 - G1 1600m

The class horse is More Joyous, but she isnt travelling as well as last preperation, had to dig real deep last start to win a race it should have bolted in.
With this in mind and the 49kgs I think Mosheen is the horse to beat. Ran a great 1000 Guineas and with 8kgs less than More Joyous I think it wins.

1st - 16 Mosheen ($4.60)
2nd - 1 More Joyous
3rd - 9 Varenna Miss

RACE 8 - 1200m

A very strong race which is of Group 1 quality (alot of these horses wont run in the Group 1s as they want to avoid Black Caviar).
Main chances include Neeson, Sister Madly, Mid Summer Music, Curtana and Rarefied.
But I quite like the straight track specialist from Queensland Temple of Boom, 4 wins from 5 starts down the straight is good enough for me.

1st - 2 Temple Of Boom ($7)
2nd - 10 Curtana
3rd - 6 Sister Madly

RACE 9 - 1400m

A tough one to end the day on with alot of chances in the last.
I quite like the talented Toorak Toff, has a ton of ability who either runs superbly or terrible. Won the Group 1 Rupert Clark Stakes over the 1400 a month ago, he brings that form he wins

1st - 2 Toorak Toff ($11)
2nd - 4 Woorim
3rd - 9 Torio's Quest



Best Bet - R7 #16 Mosheen
Best Each Way Bet - R2 #4 Moyenne Corniche
Best Roughie - R6 #6 Perfect Punch
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Hank Moody
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PostSubject: Re: Spring Carnival Tips   Fri Oct 28, 2011 12:03 pm

good write up man, had one too...except i hit the wrong button and lost it all Sad

Pretty much same tips. i originally went Southern Speed in the McKinnon but with no Williams i might change that...in the second race Green Moon.

i wish i posted my write up now Sad
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neil21
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PostSubject: Re: Spring Carnival Tips   Fri Oct 28, 2011 12:22 pm

Williams is riding tomorrow, his suspension starts Midnight Sunday morning
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Hank Moody
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PostSubject: Re: Spring Carnival Tips   Fri Oct 28, 2011 12:25 pm

oh that sucks ass for my tip Dunaden...anyways its good he is riding tomorrow...cheers for that news.
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Hank Moody
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PostSubject: Re: Spring Carnival Tips   Sat Oct 29, 2011 7:46 am

doing really well mate, apart from a couple of scratchings...
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neil21
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PostSubject: Re: Spring Carnival Tips   Sat Oct 29, 2011 12:13 pm

Wasnt too bad
4 winners, 3 were certainties though
Really happy I stuck with Glass Harmonium after last week
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Hank Moody
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PostSubject: Re: Spring Carnival Tips   Sat Oct 29, 2011 1:08 pm

yeah good call on that one mate, i actually had a pretty rotten day...got the short priced ones right...Manawanui and More Joyous let me down.

But i managed to pick up the trifecta in the last..

for 25% of $800 or so...

only put on $6, Woorim the champ brought it home for me Smile
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neil21
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PostSubject: Re: Spring Carnival Tips   Sun Oct 30, 2011 6:49 am

Have had a quick look at the cup day fields, there isn't any real certainties.
Alot of big fields as well
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